Statistic magic

The Majority traders, working at the market FOREX, will show a preference method of the technical analysis. This absolutely justified if the question is inner gamble - a fluctuations of the rates of exchange on 100-200 points in that or other side carry usually absolutely casual nature and at all are not connected with fundamental trend. But quite other deal if you strategic player, openning positions toward the main trends for several months, but that and years...

Fundamental against technical
Before you stand the problem of the making the long-term investment briefcase, consisting of bond, in different currency. Without analysis fundamental factor you in this case not to dispense though and methods of the technical analysis to forget does not stand. Unlike inner horse race, the long-term trends on international exchange market always develop in accordance with, but here is end they occasionly very unexpectedly, and moment of the fracture by fundamental methods can be very it is difficult.

So was at period of the mexican crisis 1995, when real state of affairs in economy USA at all did not foreshadow the catastrophes. So happened and autumn 1998, when little who could expect that problems in Russia will cause one of the the most loud bankruptcy in financial sector USA and the mass repatriation a capital in Europe and Japan.

In such events, when fundamental reasons begun cutting the motion incomprehensible, on help must come exactly analysis graph, and exactly technical methods must become priority. But in calm situation only fundamental analysis can prompt the faithfull direction of the long-term play, which afterwards already will graphically confirm the graphs. On some methdological aspect of the fundamental analysis business-cycles I and should like to stop in given to article.